US TV Ads concentrated on key states

An 18 July press release by Nielsen Monitor-Plus and the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project shows that both Bush and Kerry campaigns are concentrating their TV ads in battleground states (with Ohio and Missouri being most strongly targeted by both campaigns). 60 percent of Americans live in areas where no TV ads have been shown since March.

Attack Ads and Voters' Memories

John and James Geer's article in the March 2003 issue of Political Behavior makes an interesting challenge to the conventional wisdom regarding the effects of negative political advertising. Using the Information Processing Approach of experimental psychology, they recorded dummy radio campaign ads and evaluated students' recall of them. The Geers found that negative ads do not stick in voters' memories significantly more or less than positive ads. This finding supports the argument that attack ads do not turn voters off politics. However, participants' recall of negative ads was less accurate than their recall of positive ads. It's an open question whether such inaccurate recall is necessarily undesirable in a democracy. The authors call for more research to be done on media of political communication apart from TV.

Geer, John G. and James H. Geer, 2003. Political Behavior, Vol.25 No. 1, March 2003. pp. 69-95.

Browsing Alone?

In the April-June issue of Political Communication Eric Uslaner analyses two surveys of Internet users' behavior and attitudes to challenge the arguments advanced by Putnam and others that the Internet is accelerating the erosion of American social capital begun by television. Uslaner finds that people who are more trusting of other people are if anything slightly more likely to use the Net than those who are less trusting. But starting to use the Internet makes people neither more nor less trusting. As Uslaner points out, this makes sense when we remember that trust in this context means a positive relationship between people who do not have much in common with each other. The Internet tends to make it easier to find others with whom we have something in common, and communities tend to grow up around those commonly shared characteristics to the exclusion of "strangers". This chimes in with a discussion I had at my department's open day on Saturday with a student who is studying the possibilities of online communication between different ethnic groups living in the same locality.

Uslaner, Eric M., 2004. Trust, Civic Engagement, and the Internet. Political Communication Vol. 21 No. 2 April-June 2004, pp. 223-242.

US Presidential Candidates Increase Web Advertising

An article on BizReport tells how Bush and Kerry are increasing their use of advertisements on websites. Neither party will reveal how much it is spending on online advertising, although it is certain to be much less than what they are spending on TV ads. There is considerable potential for targeting political ads at particular sectors of the electorate.

UK Postmen Refuse to Deliver Election Leaflets

Elections for the European Parliament will be held throughout Europe on Thursday 10 June. Parties fielding candidates in the election can have leaflets delivered for free?in the UK's case, by the Royal Mail. However, Royal Mail postmen have a clause in their contracts which allows them to refuse to deliver mail with which they do not agree. Already postmen in some parts of the UK have refused to deliver leaflets of the British National Party, and the boycott may be extended to include the Europhobic UK Independence Party and the anti-abortion Operation Christian Vote. The Royal Mail says it will ensure all leaflets are delivered, if necessary using different postmen.

Katie Foster, Postmen can refuse to deliver 'extreme' Euro election leaflets. Scotland on Sunday, 30 May 2004.

Defining the Candidate

In the US Presidential campaign, many voters do not have a clear idea of who John Kerry is. That is shaping the two camps' advertising campaigns at the moment. According to Taegan Goddard's Political Wire:

To attract on-the-fence voters, Kerry is expanding the use of biographical ads to introduce himself, while President Bush is running negative ads to try to define his opponent first.

(The Race To Define Kerry, May 28, 2004)

Other recent Political Wire items on advertising:

Berlusconi's election posters

The Guardian reports on what seems to be a backfiring poster campaign by the Italian Prime Minister. According to a survey by Coesis research, writes Sophie Arie,

Although 80% of the 406 voters polled had seen the Big Brother-style posters and the big figures, only 6% were convinced by them. 57% of former Forza Italia voters were so put off by them they were considering voting for someone else.

Sophie Arie, The laughable cavaliere. Guardian, 20 May 2004.

Sofas, fizzy drinks and the Tory Party

The UK Conservative Party has announced its new advertising strategy. It switches away from the negative attack ads of recent years and aims instead to emulate successful ad campaigns for commercial goods.

Patrick Barrett, Tories swap vitriol for humour in bid to unseat Blair. The Guardian, Tuesday March 23.

Criticism of Bush's 9/11 TV spot

Some relatives of 9/11 victims and New York firemen take exception to the use of footage of a dead body (wrapped in the US flag) being lifted from the ruins of the World Trade Center.

Bush TV Ads

George Bush's first reelection TV spots have been released. I'm not very familiar with US TV ads, but I was struck by the way each spot either started or finished with the line

"I'm President / George W. Bush, and I approve /approve of this message"

Are these words a way of meeting a legal requirement to say who is responsible for the ad? It seems to me rather redundant to say that one approves of what one has said in the previous 30 or 60 seconds, but no doubt there is a reason.

$2m of candy floss

Stefano Hatfield comments in the on the powerlessness of expensive political advertising to shape political issues in the US; public relations and news events are much more influential.

Restrictions on street advertising

This is not directly related to political advertising, but is about the visual environment in which Japanese political posters must struggle for attention. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is to change the Law on Outdoor Advertisements (??????) in order to give local authorities more power to cut down on street ads. This will be the first major revision of the law in 31 years. The current law makes it difficult to remove advertisements in order to protect free speech, but the number of advertisements has increased to a point where it can be difficult to walk along the streets. In particular flags and plastic boards, which are not covered by current legislation, have proliferated. Most of the offending advertisements are placed by loan companies, real estate companies and the sex industry. New regulations will allow persistent offenders to be imprisoned.

Ageo Mayoral Election posters

Incumbent Kôji Arai (?? ??) reminds voters that he is the current mayor and calls for a rediscovery of Ageo, lively people and a lively town. Fumiyoshi Dômae (???? ??) wants to renew the city government, and says courage is needed now. Kimio Kikkawa promises to make city government fair and equal. He also prints his website URL in large print, which is unusual for mayoral candidates. Kikkawa's website is online during the campaign period.

Kyoto Mayoral Election posters

The three posters are all straightforward ID ads stressing faces and names. Incumbent Yorikane Masumoto (???? ??) reminds us of his "reliability and results", while Shinsuke Arai (?? ??) offers a little diagram showing citizens leading the government and the city backing them up. Moriaki Hirohara (?? ????) merely notes his previous job as principal of Osaka Prefectural University.

(Thanks to Maho for shooting the posters).

Osaka Gubernatorial Election posters

The incumbent Fusae Ôta (?? ??)'s poster emphasizes her name rather than her face, and features the slogan "accelerate the revitalization of Osaka" (??????????) It also discreetly notes the recommendations of the LDP, DJP and Komeito. These recommendations became a focal point of the campaign, as the DJP Dietmember and former Osaka baseball hero Takenori Emoto (?? ??) resigned from the Diet to stand for governor. emphasizesster emphasises his face, featuring not one but two close-up photographs. The larger photo is a contemporary color shot, and in the upper right corner there is another photograph of the candidate in black and white. However the Emoto in the black and white photograph does not appear to be any younger than the figure in the central shot. Perhaps this a clever piece of understatement, inviting the viewer to remember Emoto's glory days by showing an "old-fashioned" black and white photograph, but not actually showing him as a sportsman -- which might suggest that he lacks the seriousness required of a politician. Emoto's slogan is run-of-the-mill ("let's change Osaka together"), but it is in Osaka dialect (????????????!!) The candidate recommended by the JCP, Shôji Umeda (?? ??) opts for a bright red background and a slogan promising to restore both living standards and the Osaka economy.

(Thanks to Maho for shooting the posters).

Mr. Trippi's commission

Following Joe Trippi's departure as Howard Dean's campaign manager following defeats in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, the New York Times has noted the campaign's financial arrangements with its media firm.

"Tricia Enright, the campaign's communications director, said Dr. Dean was forming "a new creative team" to overhaul its television advertisements. She said the campaign was not firing its media firm, in which Mr. Trippi is a partner. Many Dean supporters have been critical of the ad campaign, particularly in Iowa. Some questioned the arrangements by which Mr. Trippi forfeited a salary as a campaign manager but collected commissions - said to be as high as 15 percent in some cases - based on advertising buys."

Hirosaki Mayoral Election posters

Anthony Rausch of Hirosaki University kindly reports:

"there are two candidates running, the incumbent Kanazawa (male, 72 years old, jimin, with suisen from komei and shiji from shamin) and Shimoda (female 63, most famous around here for being the riji of a private junior college). If I noticed correctly, she had the number one spot on the election poster boards - her poster is simply a face-shot - I will have to look at what she is wearing and what sort of background there is - as well as what slogan she is using. Kanazawa's poster shows him, full-body standing about 15-20 degrees off face-center to the camera."

Fuchû Mayoral Election posters

Two very simple candidate posters. Tadanao Noguchi's simply states "Tadanao Noguchi for mayor", while Mitsue Kanazashi's bears the slogan "let's change Fuchû together". Kanazashi's poster also shows that she is backed by the "Group For A Woman Mayor."

Yoshikawa City Council Election posters

I took a very roundabout route to work in order to photograph city council election posters in Yoshikawa, eastern Saitama. Top marks to the city council for setting up poster boards outside both entrances of Yoshikawa station. Unfortunately both boards were set up directly next to rather busy roads, and impossible to view from any sidewalk. Fortunately one of them was next to a bus stop so I was able to photograph in relatively safety, although conscious of a waiting bus driver looking down at me from his cab a couple of meters away.

As for the posters, the five JCP posters have an identical horizontal format, layout, color scheme and main slogan ("for a welfare-oriented city administration"). The four New Komeito posters also have a common format and color scheme. Of the rest, three candidates are called Higurashi (possibly relatives?) but their posters are all very different. Perhaps the most eye-catching poster is that of independent candidate Hatsue Taguchi; her photo has obviously been taken in a studio unlike most of the other candidates' pictures, and the very dark background of her poster also stands out.

Hachioji Mayoral Election

I went to Hachioji in western Tokyo to photograph posters in the mayoral election that is due to be held this Sunday. There are only two candidates, the incumbent Ryuuichi KUROSU and the challenger Akira ISAWA. Kurosu's poster has two or three rather vague slogans and logos, plus a reminder in large text that he is the incumbent. Isawa, an independent recommended by the JCP, emphasizes two specific policies: one to cancel plans to charge households for garbage disposal, and another to introduce school classes with (only) 30 pupils.

Election calendar updated

After many months of neglect, I have updated the online calendar of Japanese elections. This entailed crawling round all the Prefectural Election Boards' websites to find out the dates of upcoming elections. Unfortunately only 28 prefectures post the actual dates of upcoming elections rather than simply the end of the current candidates's terms. I'll try to find other sources of information about the remaining prefectures. Thanks to Joe Sasanuma of Boston College for encouraging me to update the calendar.

Anti-Bush ads

As widely reported, two submissions to the Bush in 30 Seconds contest for anti-Bush TV ads run by MoveOn.org compared George Bush to Adolf Hitler. The Republic Party website, ironically, provides perhaps the most detail of the controversial submissions.

Arrests for campaign funding irregularities

LDP Dietmember Masanori Arai is being questioned about suspected illegal use of funds during the Nov. 2003 general election campaign. The allegations include the illegal dispersal of funds to people putting up posters around the district.

"The police arrested Sunagawa on Dec. 17 for allegedly giving a total of 1.55 million yen to 15 people in late October in return for their visiting households and calling for support for Arai or helping to distribute his posters."
LDP's Arai in election vote-buying probe. 28 Dec, 2003. Japan Times.

???????????????????? . asahi.com, 2003.12.29.

Update: LDP's Arai admits role in buying Nov. 9 votes. 4 January 2004, Japan Times.

Posters in Renaissance Italy

This does not concern election posters, but in 15th century Florence lifelike portraits of political enemies (such as the leaders of the Pazzi conspiracy against the Medici clan in 1478) were painted onto the exteriors of public buildings.

"In Florence... bankrupts and traitors were depicted in large format on the facades of buildings, sometimes on the palace of the Lord Priors, but most often on the Bargello, the fortress of the chief police magistrate. To underline identities, names were carefully inscribed beside or under images. In the case of traitors, images were also accompanied by scurrilous lines of verse; and any such portrait was likely to last for many years."

Lauro Martines, April Blood: Florence and the Plot Against the Medici. Cape, 2003. ISBN 0224061674. pp. 134-135.

Brian McNair's An Introduction to Political Communication

The chapter on political advertising is of most relevance to our research on election posters.

This book is an undergraduate textbook, but it does provide some useful pointers to previous research on political advertising in the United States and Britain. I must find, for example, Kaid et al., ads., New Perspectives in Political Advertising (1986). McNair also points out that it is relatively rare for advertisements to articulate policies, and (quoting Diamond and Bates' The Spot) that the first phase of a US advertising campaign is to establish the basic identity of a candidate.

Poster images imported

Today I wrote and ran an Applescript that imported all the photos of posters into the record for that poster in the main Filemaker Pro database.

This makes it much quicker to look at posters and add information about them to the database.

In fact the posters themselves were not added to the database, as that would swell the database to an unmanageable size. Only pointers to the image files were added to Filemaker, but the photos are displayed within the database.

Munger review of The Winning Message

I just read Michael Munger's perceptive, and very funny, review of Adam Simon's The Winning Message: Candidate Behavior, Campaign Discourse, and Democracy (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2002).

Munger summarizes Simon's argument that political campaigns are about persuading unattached voters, who tend to have moderate views. Candidates try to focus campaigns on issues that it is in their advantage to discuss, which are rarely the same issues on which their opponents want to campaign. So debate on issues is unlikely to happen.

Munger's final comment is that we are unable to use outcomes of previous campaigns as guides to how to fight future campaigns. Election results do depend on how candidates campaign, but every campaign is unique.

The review is in Political Communication, 20:191-195, 2003.

Female combativeness in election posters?

Gidengil and Everitt's article "Gender and Reported Speech in Campaign News Coverage" (Political Communication 20: 209-232, 2003) is making me think about the gender aspects of posters.

The authors report research that women candidates can -- and do -- stress their combative side, i.e. stereotypically masculine traits, without losing their stereotypically feminine attributes. But if they overemphasize combativeness the media focus on this to the exclusion of the candidate's other aspects and ideas, and voters react negatively. Do female candidates stress combativeness in their posters?

Working on our next article

Brian Masshardt sent me his ideas for our next article on Japanese election posters.

The focus of this article will probably be on situating Japanese election posters in theories of political communications. As well, of course, as presenting our analysis of the posters from the General Election last month.

City council elections in Saitama

This morning I took photographs of council election posters in Ageo and Asaka Cities (both in Saitama).

I haven't checked the lists of candidates and affiliations, but surprisingly few posters in these two elections stated that the candidate was an independent. Have independent candidates stopped making a sales point of their independence? Odagiri Seisaku was back with another eery line-drawing.

Berlusconi

The Economist notes that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi did not allow any other politicians' faces to appear on his party's election posters.

"Then, in 2001, Mr Berlusconi led a highly personal campaign. His candidates were banned from putting their faces on posters: only pictures of the eternally tanned and smiling leader would do."

"The opposition finds its man", 13 November 2003.

Regulations on Colours

Under the regime of Napoleon III in the 1850s the crackdown on political opposition extended to posters.

"Policemen tore down opposition posters, which were easy to spot because only official candidates were allowed to use white paper."

Graham Robb, Slippery Prince . London Review of Books Vol. 25 No. 12, 19 June 2003.